Why Tyreek Hill’s ankle could be the difference in the AFC

The Miami Dolphins lost a football game Monday night, in stunning fashion. Despite holding a 14-point lead over the Tennessee Titans with three minutes remaining, the Dolphins fell at home by a final score of 28-27. In the process, the Dolphins became the first team since 2016 to lose despite holding such a lead with just three minutes to go.

Previously, teams with such an advantage were 767-0.

It is never good to become “one of one” in such fashion, but in reality the Dolphins still control their own destiny not just for the AFC East title, but the top spot in the conference and the sole bye week in the playoffs. Should Miami win their remaining games (against the Jets, the Cowboys, at Baltimore, and against the Bills) they would lock up the top seed in the AFC.

However, the conversation is much more complicated than that, especially involving their most dynamic playmaker, Tyreek Hill.

Hill suffered an ankle injury late in the first quarter, and was sidelined until late in the third quarter. While he managed to return, and finished the night with four receptions for 61 yards, the receiver admitted after the game that he “was in a lot of pain,” and initially thought the ankle was broken.

He also said that a text from his wife was the prompt to return to action:

Hill’s status going forward is a massive story to follow, given what he means to this Miami offense. It was clear during his time on the sideline that the Dolphins’ passing game is simply not as dangerous without him on the field. While Hill was out, Miami only managed a single field goal, although another field goal attempt was blocked.

When he returned, however, the offense started to click again. Which speaks to what he brings to the Miami offense.

When the discussion turns to Hill, the first topic that comes up is usually his speed. The Miami WR has elite, game-changing speed, and that certainly factors into both the discussion about his talent, as well as how defenses in general — and cornerbacks in particular — approach the Dolphins.

Because whatever cushion you give him, he can erase in the blink of an eye.

Of course, Mike McDaniel has leaned into this, with the use of motion and formation to give Hill an edge. Helping your players and putting them in position to be their best is the job of a coach after all, and McDaniel is hitting all the right notes. The “cheat” motion that captured the hearts of football analysts early in the season, where Hill gets almost a running start into his routes, still gives him an edge at this point in the season.

Take this example from Hill’s huge game against the Washington Commanders back in Week 13:

Hill begins this play aligned in a wing just outside the right tackle, and starts in motion towards the boundary right before the snap. Even though the cornerback has about eight yards of cushion when the play begins, Hill erases that in the blink of an eye, en route to his second long touchdown of the afternoon.

But what makes Hill so dangerous is not his speed along, but what he does at the start of a route, as well as what he can do at the top of his vertical stem. On the latter point, Hill uses his speed to put the fear of God in the minds of cornerbacks, terrifying them with what he can potentially do down the field, to create opportunities in the intermediate area of the field.

And thereby some shorter throws for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

Take this play against the Las Vegas Raiders, which finds Hill aligned to the right side of the formation. The cornerback gives Hill about nine yards of cushion, but when the receiver pushes vertically, he sells the DB on the deep route.

That’s when Hill snaps off his out route towards the sideline:

Hill does such a good job of selling the cornerback on a vertical route, that he creates a ton of separation on his break. Add in a well-timed throw from Tagovailoa, and you have an explosive play in the passing game.

Here is another example of this in action against the Carolina Panthers. Hill again aligns to the right side of the formation and pushes vertically. When Hill reaches the top of his stem, the defensive back breaks into a dead sprint to cover the route, giving the receiver another chance to break to the outside and create a huge amount of separation:

That’s what Hill does downfield, but another area where he stands out is at the line of scrimmage. Tagovailoa has an Average Depth of Target (aDOT) of 8.2 yards this season according to Pro Football Focus, which places him 15th in the NFL.

But according to Next Gen Stats his Time to Throw (TT) is 2.38 seconds, which is far and away the quickest in the NFL.

Part of that is schematic, but part of that is also what Hill can do early in his routes. Thanks to his footwork, and how quickly he can stress a defender’s leverage, and accelerate away from them, Hill wins many routes — even downfield routes — near the line of scrimmage.

Which leads to quick throws from Tagovailoa, that can still become explosive plays.

Take this route against Washington, where Hill wins against a defender on a slot fade to the left side:

Using a stutter-step release, Hill eventually drive his left foot into the ground towards the sideline, stressing the outside leverage of the defender. When the cornerback makes the slightest shuffle in that direction, Hill explodes to the inside, and in an instant he is open downfield.

The time to throw on this play? Less than 2.5 seconds.

Here is basically the same exact route against the New York Jets. Only this time when the cornerback tries to play it straight after Hill fakes to the outside, the receiver simply continues in that direction:

The time to throw on this play? Less than 2.2 seconds.

While both of those routes came out of the slot, here is an example of Hill again winning on a vertical route early in the down, against the Philadelphia Eagles. He is aligned along the left sideline, and while James Bradberry tries to be as patient as possible, he eventually gives Hill a slight opening to the inside.

And the receiver explodes through it:

These clips highlight how Hill is much, much more than a schemed-up speed demon, but rather a complete wide receiver who can win on his routes early in the down, as well as late.

But there is also what Hill creates for those around him, thanks to these traits and the “gravity” that follows him on the field. For example, take this play from early Monday night against Tennessee. The Dolphins run a Dagger concept, with Hill in the slot and Jayden Waddle outside of him. Hill runs the vertical route, while Waddle runs the dig.

Tennessee runs Cover 2 on this play, and take note of how the three deepest defenders are all drawn in by Hill’s vertical, which creates a tremendous amount of space for Waddle on his dig:

This is what gravity on a football field looks like:

Or take this play from when Hill returned to the game in the second half. He aligns on the left side of the formation, across from Waddle who is on the right side of the offense. Hill runs a deep post, while Waddle runs a dig.

Tennessee again drops into a Cover 2 look, with Amani Hooker as the middle-of-the-field runner between the safeties. He starts the play shaded towards Hill, and while he does slide to the middle, he stays on the hashmark closest to Hill.

This creates space for Waddle’s dig route:

Again, gravity:

Hill is a critically important part of this Miami offense, both with what he can create himself as a receiver and how that helps Tagovailoa, as well as what he can create for others. While it is true the Dolphins control their own destiny, they’ll need him in the lineup as much as possible to realize that destiny.

This post was originally published on SBNation