There are a few things that seem locks to happen in 2024 based on every ounce of logic we possess. Aaron Rodgers will do something stupid again, Oppenheimer will win Best Picture at the Academy Awards, we will continue to hurtle towards certain doom — and the Cowboys will move on from Mike McCarthy.
Sunday evening wasn’t a disappointment. It wasn’t a shock. Those terms imply a level of surprise. Dallas entered their game against the Packers as a team who routinely collapses in the playoffs, and proceeded to get their asses kicked from pillar to post by a 9-8 team with a predictable deep-ball offense, an inconsistent running game, and a defense which was decent, but certainly nothing to write home about.
This should have been a game Dallas dominated, but deep down we knew that wouldn’t — because failure has become the Cowboy way.
Jerry Jones called this Cowboys’ loss is one of his biggest surprises since I’ve been involved in sports. “I’m floored.”
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) January 15, 2024
Mike McCarthy isn’t the architect of this collapse, he’s just its latest caretaker. For three straight years he’s made the Cowboys one of the best regular season teams in the NFL — and for three straight years they’ve lost early in the playoffs. This one is different, this one hits different. In 2021 and 2022 the Cowboys faced the 49ers, a team perennially pegged as a Super Bowl favorite. It was understandable, albeit disappointing to lose to the Niners. The kind of football move that makes you say “I get it,” but collapsing to the Packers is on a whole other level.
The man who preceded him suffered the same fate. Jason Garrett was far less consistent, but he also suffered three early playoff losses before he was shown the door. Twice to the Aaron Rodgers-led Packers, seen as a superior team — and once to the Rams, the upstart Sean McVay team that would go on the compete in the Super Bowl.
There’s no great way to explain why the Cowboys collapse like this other than look at the one congruent factor: Coaching. It’s understandable why Dallas chose McCarthy to lead them after Garrett, because the man has a Super Bowl ring — but this failed to explain why the Packers routinely underperformed under McCarthy in the playoffs.
This was an organization that had Aaron Rodgers at his peak, with weapons for days. From 2011-2016 the Packers lost early in the playoffs six times in a row, often to teams who weren’t favored to beat them. This was a team that finished with 10+ wins NINE of the 10 times they went to the playoffs. They rarely backed their way in, but McCarthy’s career playoff record in Green Bay is a paltry 10-8, padded dramatically by their 4-0 Super Bowl run in 2010. Outside of that they lost more than they won, collapsed more often than not, let down the fans when promise abounded.
Winning in the playoffs is supremely difficult. A great many coaches have suffered the same curse of dominating the regular season and turning back into a pumpkin when everything is on the line. Except for one man …
Photo by Rich Barnes/Getty Images
Rumors had been swirling about a potential landing spot for Belichick since it was announced early in the week that he wouldn’t be returning to the Patriots, and when Josina Anderson reported that two playoffs teams might be looking at a coaching change depending on results — then that amped up speculation that Belichick could be bound for America’s Team.
Is hiring Belichick the right move for the Cowboys? That’s the million-dollar question. It’s never been in doubt that Belichick is an absolute master at maximizing talent and making players execute to their full potential. This is a man who is the antithesis of the Garrett/McCarthy issue. He’s 30-12 in the playoffs. Of the 18 times he’s taken a team to the playoffs they’ve only lost their opening game four times, and two of those have happened post-Tom Brady.
And that’s the rub.
It’s far too reductive to say that Brady is the sole reason for Belichick’s success, but there’s something to be said for how he’s built the team as general manager since the GOAT left. Building around Brady was a fairly easy task, because the man made everyone look good. That’s decidedly more difficult with someone other than Brady under center.
That’s not to say this can’t work. If Bill Belichick and Jerry Jones can find a way to coexist, if Bill can take a much-needed back seat when it comes to college scouting, and if Jerry can handle not being the sole focus of his organization — then this weird marriage could work.
Belichick is only 15 wins away from passing Don Shula and becoming the winningest coach in NFL history. That would happen quickly by inheriting this Cowboys roster, and if that’s not enough then if Belichick is able to get this team over the hump, well, bringing a Super Bowl to Dallas for the first time in 30 years would make him a thing of legend.
There’s no guarantee Belichick would be interested in the Cowboys job, even if it became available — but at this point what else is this team to do? Their roster is too well constructed to warrant a teardown, and a young coach entering the picture could wind up having the same problems with executing in the playoffs that McCarthy did — it’s a crapshoot. At this point Belichick really might be the best possible option for a team trying to get over the hump, and so the drama begins.
Winner: The Houston friggin’ Texans
From one Texas team to another, it’s time to give the Texans their flowers — regardless of what happens next. No team in the NFL has made such a profound turnaround in such a short period of time outside the Lions, and this feels like a very similar situation when they’re on the precipice of dominating their division for the foreseeable future.
Everything this team is touching is turning to gold, and sadly for Cleveland, they just got in the way. C.J. Stroud is a phenom inside Bobby Slowik’s offense. That’s not intended to be a knock on the No. 2 pick, or to over-inflate what Slowik is doing — but rather compliment both of them. This is a pair who simply get each other on a fundamental level.
Houston is a team with intention. A team that knows exactly what it is, and how to achieve its goals. DeMeco Ryans was a home run hire as head coach, and the team is responding.
Nobody has dismantled the Browns defense this season like the Texans did. They mitigated Myles Garrett’s impact by rolling Stroud out on naked bootlegs, and using his mobility to disrupt the pass rush. Paired with deep ball accuracy and the Browns didn’t have an answer.
Loser: The Dolphins
What is there to say here? Miami had a tough test in Kansas City with the weather, but this team struggled against good teams all year. This is a young organization with a lot of promise, but there’s some soul searching to do in the offseason on defense to fix this, so the team doesn’t become the next Cowboys where they just can’t break through to the next level.
Winner: Andy Reid’s frozen mustache
Just beautiful.
Winner: The Detroit Lions
I don’t know what else to say. It’s been since 1991 that this team won a game in the playoffs, and they did it at home in a major statement. Dan Campbell’s team rolls on and it’s impossible not to love their story.
If you’re not a fan of another team in the NFC North, and your team is out of the playoffs — then it’s impossible not to root for the Lions to keep shocking the world and bringing pride to Detroit.
