Denmark’s Saxo Bank has a tradition of making “outrageous predictions,” which every once in a while come true. The bank counts as a win its 2022 prediction that the plan to end fossil fuels would get a rain check, and its 2019 call that Germany was about to enter a recession.
Saxo is back with some new predictions, which as always are grounded at least in some reality. “Outrageous Predictions are a deliberate effort to push the boundaries of market participants’ imaginations and prepare them for any eventuality,” says the bank.
One that stood out is the view that people will stop exercising as a result of the GLP-1 obesity drugs. (Right now, these are injections, though Novo Nordisk
NVO,
+0.52%
and Eli Lilly
LLY,
+0.28%
are both working on getting the products into pill form.)
“As supply of GLP-1 obesity drugs is expanded, prices come down and governments choose to designate the obesity drugs as vital for improving health and stopping the obesity epidemic. … However, in a turn of events, supply of GLP-1 obesity drugs is unable to meet the widespread demand, and patients need to wait for years to get their injections. Meanwhile, they stop exercising or keeping to a healthy diet now that a pill can keep weight in check, fueling a major health crisis,” says the bank.
Another prediction is that generative AI triggers a national-security crisis. “In a high-stakes game, a criminal group deploys the most deceptive generative AI deepfake the world has ever seen, phishing a high-ranking government official to hand over top-secret state information from a developed country. The daring move and success trigger the biggest national security crisis since WWII, ushering in a new era of far-reaching AI regulation,” they say. As a result, the U.S. and European Union require all content made by generative AI to be labeled “Made by AI,” goes the prediction, seemingly not noticing the U.S. has so far been unable to regulate social media, let alone AI.
The winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election? How about Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? “His populist platform against the war-mongering Democrats and against the corporate elites resonates with both disgruntled traditional Democratic and Trump supporters. A new political era in the USA begins with the dramatic pivot away from plutocracy, as voters demand an end to drastic inequality and injustice and the end of forever wars,” states the Saxo prediction.
(Not only are President Joe Biden, a Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican former president, seen as the overwhelming co-favorites to win the election, but U.K. betting shops assign better presidential odds to Republican primary hopeful Nikki Haley and Gavin Newsom, the Democratic California governor and not a 2024 contender, than to RFK Jr., who is roughly level with Michelle Obama depending on which betting firm is used.)
One prediction that really doesn’t seem so outrageous is the idea that the Bank of Japan will give up on its yield-curve control policy. “This causes a rout in global bond markets, as Japanese investors move money back home. Yen strengthens as Japanese investors repatriate money to domestic assets, pushing USDJPY
USDJPY,
-0.28%
below 130, EURJPY
EURJPY,
-0.33%
below 140 and AUDJPY
AUDJPY,
-1.19%
below 88.”
The full Saxo Bank 2024 outrageous-prediction list:
- With oil at $150, Saudis buy Champions League franchise.
- World hit by major health crisis as obesity drugs make people stop exercising.
- U.S. heralds the end of capitalism with tax-free government bonds.
- Generative AI deepfake triggers a national-security crisis.
- Deficit countries form “Rome Club” to negotiate trade terms.
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — who dropped a Democratic primary bid to mount an independent White House bid — wins the U.S. presidential election.
- Japan’s “lucky 7%” GDP growth rate forces Bank of Japan to abandon yield-curve control.
- Luxury plunges as EU goes Robin Hood, introducing wealth tax.
Read on: The Supreme Court could gut a U.S. wealth tax before it even exists — and upend tax law
This post was originally published on MarketWatch
