Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Animated Short
Weekly Commentary (Updated March 5, 2024): In the realm of animated shorts, the title can be as captivating as the storyline itself.
This year, Dave Mullins’ “War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko,” which is co-writes with Sean Lennon, the son of Beatles band member John Lennon, has emerged as a formidable contender. This film, with its breathtaking visuals, tells the poignant tale of two World War I soldiers. Engrossed in a chess game via a carrier pigeon, they remain oblivious to the fact that they are enemies. Produced by ElectroLeague, this 11-minute 3D animation marvel weaves its narrative with the enchanting music of Oscar favorite Thomas Newman. It’s as if Pixar decided to blend the narrative depth of “1917” with the artistic innovation of “Waltz with Bashir.” Its aesthetic brilliance alone may sway casual voters, particularly those drawn to the legendary John Lennon and Yoko Ono.
It also has the power of WetaFX company behind it, which often have a strong hold in categories such as this.
Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gilcelter’s “Letter to a Pig” and “Ninety-Five Senses” by Jerusha and Jared Hess, renowned for their comedic masterpiece “Napoleon Dynamite” (2004), stand as notable possibilities. Each brings a unique flavor to the competition, signaling a tough battle ahead.
“Pachyderme” positions itself as the quintessential choice for animation aficionados who cherish the art form’s purity. While it hasn’t shown clear signs of being a spoiler in this race, surprises are always a possibility in the world of cinema.
Yegane Moghaddam’s “Our Uniform” is the shortest film among the nominees but packs a powerful message. It delves into the life of an Iranian girl confronting societal perceptions that reduce her identity to merely being “female,” a notion rooted in her school years.
Will Win: “War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko” (Dave Mullins and Brad Booker)
Could Win: “Letter to a Pig” (Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter)
Should Win: “Pachyderme” (Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius)
Should have been here: “Once Upon a Studio” (Dan Abraham, Trent Correy)
Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.
And the Nominees Are:
- “War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko” (ElectroLeague)
Dave Mullins and Brad Booker - “Letter to a Pig” (Miyu Distribution)
Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter - “Pachyderme” (Miyu Distribution)
Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius - “Ninety-Five Senses” (Documentary+)
Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess - “Our Uniform” (Distributor TBA)
Yegane Moghaddam
Eligible Titles (Alphabetized) **
- “Boom”
- “Eeva”
- “Humo (Smoke)”
- “I’m Hip”
- “A Kind of Testament”
- “Koerkorter (Dog Apartment)”
- “Letter to a Pig”
- “Ninety-Five Senses”
- “Once Upon a Studio”
- “Our Uniform”
- “Pachyderme”
- “Pete”
- “27”
- “War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
- “Wild Summon”
2022 category winner: “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” (Apple TV+) — Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
Oscars Predictions Categories
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
