Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Theo James / Netflix’s “The Gentlemen”
Theo James / Netflix’s “The Gentlemen”
Commentary: Theo James earned his first nomination last year for his role in Mike White’s HBO/Max drama series “The White Lotus,” and he could extend his success in comedy with his charming performance in Guy Ritchie’s gangster dramedy “The Gentlemen.”
With Netflix’s support, James is entering a race where only five men could be nominated for the second year in a row. According to Emmy rules, at least 80 submissions are required to nominate six candidates (160 for seven and 240 or more for eight). This rule intensifies the competition in this category, especially since Steve Martin’s comedic brilliance in “Only Murders in the Building” was overlooked last year while his co-star Martin Short made it into the lineup.
This year, both men from “Only Murders” are expected to secure spots on the list with little resistance, as they contend against returning champion Jeremy Allen White, who recently won his first Emmy for FX’s “The Bear.” However, there may be a slightly tougher battle this time, with Larry David bidding farewell with his final season of the long-running and critically acclaimed “Curb Your Enthusiasm” on HBO/Max.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
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Image Credit: John P. Johnson / HBO And the Predicted Nominees Are
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series -
Image Credit: Chris Haston/Paramount+ Next in Line
Rank Series 6 Kelsey Grammar — “Frasier” (Paramount+) 7 Jharrel Jerome — “I’m a Virgo” (Prime Video) 8 Kayvan Novak — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX) 9 Drew Tarver — “The Other Two” (Max) 10 D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai — “Reservation Dogs” (FX) Outstanding Lead Actor in Comedy Series -
Image Credit: Lisa Tomasetti/Paramount+ Also In Contention
Rank Series 11 John Goodman — “The Righteous Gemstones” (Max) 12 Matt Berry — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX) 13 Seth Rogen — “Platonic” (Apple TV+) 14 Chris Messina — “Based on a True Story” (Peacock) 15 Patrick Brammall — “Colin From Accounts” (Paramount+) 16 Danny McBride — “The Righteous Gemstones” (Max) 17 Jon Cryer — “Extended Family” (NBC) 18 Utkarsh Ambudkar — “Ghosts” (CBS) 19 Chris O’Dowd — “The Big Door Prize” (Apple TV+) 20 Adjani Salmon — “Dreaming Whilst Black” (Paramount+) Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series -
Eligible Performances (Comedy Series)
Image Credit: HULU **The list below is not complete and have been confirmed as officially submitted. All information is subject to change. Grouped by network that airs each series.
- John Goodman — “The Conners” (ABC)
- Topher Grace — “Home Economics” (ABC)
- Elisha Williams — “The Wonder Years” (ABC)
- Sam Richardson — “The Afterparty” (Apple TV+)
- Chris O’Dowd — “The Big Door Prize” (Apple TV+)
- Seth Rogen — “Platonic” (Apple TV+)
- Billy Gardell — “Bob Hearts Abishola” (CBS)
- Utkarsh Ambudkar — “Ghosts” (CBS)
- Cedric the Entertainer — “The Neighborhood” (CBS)
- Skylar Astin — “So Help Me Todd” (CBS)
- Iain Armitage — “Young Sheldon” (CBS)
- Joel McHale — “Animal Control” (Fox)
- Marcus Scribner — “Grown-ish” (Freeform)
- Jeremy Allen White — “The Bear” (FX)
- Martin Freeman — “Breeders” (FX)
- D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai — “Reservation Dogs” (FX)
- Matt Berry — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
- Kayvan Novak — “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
- Steve Martin — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
- Martin Short — “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
- Chris Estrada — “This Fool” (Hulu)
- Sebastian Maniscalco — “Bookie” (Max)
- Larry David — “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Max)
- Drew Tarver — “The Other Two” (HBO)
- Rhys Darby — “Our Flag Means Death” (Max)
- John Goodman — “The Righteous Gemstones” (Max)
- Danny McBride — “The Righteous Gemstones” (Max)
- Jon Cryer — “Extended Family” (NBC)
- George Lopez — “Lopez vs. Lopez” (NBC)
- John Larroquette — “Night Court” (NBC)
- Justin Chien — “The Brothers Sun” (Netflix)
- Theo James — “The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
- Patrick Brammall — “Colin From Accounts” (Paramount+)
- Adjani Salmon — “Dreaming Whilst Black” (Paramount+)
- Kelsey Grammar — “Frasier” (Paramount+)
- Chris Messina — “Based on a True Story” (Peacock)
- Craig Robinson — “Killing It” (Peacock)
- Max Burkholder — “Ted” (Peacock)
- Seth MacFarlane — “Ted” (Peacock)
- Anthony Mackie — “Twisted Metal” (Peacock)
- Jaz Sinclair — “Gen V” (Prime Video)
- David Tennant — “Good Omens” (Prime Video)
- Michael Sheen — “Good Omens” (Prime Video)
- Jharrel Jerome — “I’m a Virgo” (Prime Video)
- Robbie Amell — “Upload” (Prime Video)
- Jake Johnson — “Minx” (Starz)
- Greg Kinnear — “Shining Vale” (Starz)
- Alan Tudyk — “Resident Alien” (Syfy)
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More Information
Image Credit: Credit: BBC 3 2023 category winner: Jeremy Allen White as Carmen “Carmy” Berzatto — “The Bear” (FX) — Season 1
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs that identify as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Awards Predictions
Drama Comedy Limited/Movie Drama Series Comedy Series Limited or Anthology Series Lead Actor (Drama) Lead Actor (Comedy) Lead Actor (Limited, Movie) Lead Actress (Drama) Lead Actress (Comedy) Lead Actress (Limited, Movie) Supporting Actor (Drama) Supporting Actor (Comedy) Supporting Actor (Limited, Movie) Supporting Actress (Drama) Supporting Actress (Comedy) Supporting Actress (Limited, Movie) Directing (Drama) Directing (Comedy) Directing (Limited, Movie) Writing (Drama) Writing (Comedy) Writing (Limited, Movie) Guest Actor (Drama) Guest Actor (Comedy) Television Movie Guest Actress (Drama) Guest Actress (Comedy) Casting (Limited, Movie) Casting (Drama) Casting (Comedy) Other Awards Predictions
Talk Series Reality Competition Program Animated Program Scripted Variety Game Show Character Voice-Over Performance Variety Special (Live) Host for a Reality or Competition Program Narrator Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) Structured Reality Documentary (Series) Directing (Series, Special) Unstructured Reality Documentary (Special) Writing (Series, Special) Directing (Reality Program) Hosted Nonfiction (Series or Special) Music (Limited, Movie, Special, Series, Documentary, Direction, Theme Music, Lyrics, Supervision) Main Title Design Writing (Nonfiction) Short Form Series Short Form (Actor/Actress) Exceptional Merit About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship, and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy, which hosts the Emmys, consists of over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
