Despite all of the recent success that the Kansas City Chiefs have had during the Patrick Mahomes era, the San Francisco 49ers are still favored going into Super Bowl LVIII on Sunday. Earlier this week, our own Bill Williamson made the case for why the 49ers will win the Super Bowl. Now, let’s turn our attention to the “underdogs.”
Kansas City has the opportunity to win their third Super Bowl in five seasons, including the first back-to-back Super Bowl wins for a franchise since the 2004-2005 New England Patriots. Here’s how they’ll do it and cement their legacy as one of the better dynasties in NFL history.
Chris Jones can take over the game
San Francisco 49ers left tackle Trent Williams is one of the best, if not the best, offensive linemen in the NFL over the past decade. Unfortunately for the 49ers, though, it’s a bit of a star-and-scrubs lineup for the team up front. Beyond Williams, the remaining starters on the offensive line are Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, Spencer Burford and Colton McKivitz, who leave a lot to be desired. Pro Football Focus even regularly graded the San Francisco offensive line among the bottom half of the lines in the league, despite having a consistent First-Team All-Pro left tackle in Williams.
Meanwhile, Kansas City’s Chris Jones, who can primarily play on the interior but can, at times, match up against tackles, will often be lining up against these nondescript linemen in the Super Bowl. Jones is one of the more consistent interior pass-rushers in the NFL, as he’s recorded a total of 67 sacks over his last six seasons.
Jones is also playing on a one-year contract, meaning that this performance could be his last big shot to prove to other NFL teams that he’s worth a mega contract before he’s slated to hit unrestricted free agency in 2024. It’s much easier to double-team an edge rusher with chip help from a tight end or running back than it is to put two bodies on an interior pass-rusher like Jones, especially in a blitz-heavy scheme like Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s. If the 49ers start to fall behind, like they did against both the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions this postseason, allowing Jones to pin his ears back and rush the passer could be a death sentence for San Francisco’s offensive line.
Andy Reid is coming off of a bye week
There are a couple of angles here, but here’s the fact: Kansas City head coach Andy Reid has a 31-7 record following a 12-day rest during his NFL career. When paired with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, his record in these games is 11-2.
That’s about as close to a lock as you’re going to get in this league, if you’re talking about trends with any sort of substantial sample size. Obviously, there are a couple of factors in play here, so let’s get into them.
First of all, Reid is a good coach and his teams are generally good, which is one factor. Over his career, Reid has a record of 283-160-1, including both the regular season and postseason, meaning that he’s won over 100 games more than he’s lost. So you can point to that as being one reason why his teams are so good off of a bye, even though the win percentages don’t exactly match.
The trick play the Chiefs used on Sunday was a doozy
Tackle over
The center and LG swapped positions Thuney snapped the ball and Creed pulled like he’s at LGSo on the ball (L to R on screen)
WR, RT, LT, C, LG (snapping the ball), RG, TE.Then went with a wing + FB +… pic.twitter.com/7iqrJMqWOB
— Geoff Schwartz (@geoffschwartz) December 19, 2023
The other major factor, as I see it, is Reid’s style of coaching. Reid, by nature, is an innovative offensive coach who does a lot of creative stuff at the goal line — the most valuable portion of the field. My theory is that this extra time allows Reid and his staff to scheme up odd, but successful, goal-line plays that help the team punch in touchdowns that other “spread” teams typically don’t get. In the middle of the field, quarterback Patrick Mahomes will take care of the rest.
Speaking of Mahomes…
The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes
Yes, San Francisco’s Brock Purdy had an impressive season himself, but he’s no Patrick Mahomes. He simply isn’t.
All-time, including the postseason, Mahomes is 88-25 in games he’s started. In the postseason alone, he’s 14-3. For perspective, 14 postseason wins is already better than the franchise totals that 12 different NFL franchises have posted.
Not only is Mahomes historically successful, but he’s coming off of a great stretch of play. With rookie Rashee Rice being (arguably) his best wide receiver, Mahomes recorded two straight road victories against the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens — two hostile environments — this postseason. In Buffalo, he faced below-freezing temperatures. Versus the Ravens, it was the league’s number one ranked defense and the likely 2023 season MVP quarterback, Lamar Jackson, on the opposite sideline.
Currently, Mahomes is the most efficient passer in the history of the sport. He’s doing all this while having the postseason success of a young Tom Brady. As a pure passer, he’s as talented as anyone who has ever played the sport, be it Aaron Rodgers, Dan Marino or John Elway.
And on top of that…he’s only 28 years old. Get ready for another decade-plus of him, should he follow in Brady and Rodgers’ footsteps of playing until he’s 40 years or older. You’re witnessing greatness. Act like it. I’m simply beyond doubting Mahomes in must-win games.
