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  • Joe Biden could pull out from this year’s presidential elections, says a JPMorgan strategist.
  • Michael Cembalest said Biden’s withdrawal could happen “sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election.”
  • Biden’s candidacy has been beset with concerns over his low approval ratings and advanced age.

President Joe Biden may not be on November’s ballot papers, says JPMorgan Asset Management strategist Michael Cembalest.

Cembalest predicted Biden would drop out from the race “sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health reasons.”

Super Tuesday is set for March 5, with 16 states and territories holding their primaries and caucuses on that day.

Biden, Cembalest wrote, would then be replaced by a “candidate named by the Democratic National Committee.”


Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy at JPMorgan, made the prediction in his list of “top ten possible surprises for 2024.” Cembalest’s list was published in JPMorgan Asset Management’s “Eye on the Market Outlook” on January 1.

“Biden has a low approval rating for a President with ~10% job creation since his inauguration, although that figure is the by-product of his inauguration coinciding with the rollout of COVID vaccines and a reopening US economy,” Cembalest wrote.

In April, Biden announced his reelection bid, and urged voters to let him “finish the job.” The 81-year-old has framed himself as the best candidate to defeat former President Donald Trump, and safeguard American democracy.

“America, as we begin this election year, we must be clear. Democracy is on the ballot. Your freedom is on the ballot,” Biden said in a speech in Pennsylvania on Friday.


However, concerns over Biden’s low approval ratings and advanced age have plagued his campaign. Recent polls suggest that 2024 will be a tight rematch between Biden and Trump.

Biden has brushed aside comments on his age, saying that it’s an asset for his candidacy.

“I have acquired a hell of a lot of wisdom and know more than the vast majority of people. And I’m more experienced than anybody that’s ever run for the office,” Biden told MSNBC in May.

David Axelrod, who advised President Barack Obama on his presidential campaigns, raised questions about Biden’s candidacy in November.


“If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?” Axelrod wrote on X.

Axelrod subsequently told Politico that he wasn’t asking Biden to drop out of the race.

“He’s the only one to make the decision. And if his decision is ‘no, I’m the best person to take this on,’ then he will,” Axelrod said.

It is unclear who would take over from Biden if he does drop out.


Vice President Kamala Harris told 60 Minutes in October that she wouldn’t “engage in that hypothetical” when asked.

“Joe Biden is very much alive and running for reelection,” Harris told 60 Minutes’ Bill Whitaker.

And Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, another prominent Democratic Party figure, has repeatedly rejected speculation that he may run.

“No, no, not happening, no, no, no, not at all,” Newsom said in September 2022 at the Texas Tribune Festival.


Representatives for JPMorgan Asset Management and Biden did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Business Insider sent outside regular business hours.

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