We are nearing both the end of the calendar year, as well as the end of the NFL regular season.
So it is probably a good time to revisit the coaching hot seat discussion.
We last did this ahead of Thanksgiving, when we graded head coaches based on how cooked they were at the time. It is important to note that two of the coaches we discussed in that piece — Frank Reich and Brandon Staley — have already been relieved of their duties.
Could one of these coaches be next?
Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
According to at least one report, the decision has already been made. As Tom E. Curran reported last week on NBC Sports Boston, owner Robert Kraft made the decision to part ways with Bill Belichick following an embarrassing loss to the Indianapolis Colts in Germany.
Whether that is true or not remains to be seen, and reporting since then has softened that position. The Patriots did manage to win a game against the Pittsburgh Steelers two weeks ago, but it remains clear that changes are necessary. With the team inching closer to a top-two pick in the upcoming draft next spring, the opportunity is there to completely change course.
Whether Belichick is at the helm or not remains an open question. But at this point in his career would he even want to be part of another rebuild, with another rookie quarterback in the huddle?
Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons
Owner Arthur Blank gave head coach Arthur Smith a limited vote of confidence this week, stating that the team will “let the season play out” before making any decisions. While the owner made it clear that there was not a playoff mandate in place, he did offer up how Smith would be graded.
And indicated that at this point, that grade would be mixed at best.
“No, that was never really a requirement,” he said. “The requirement was we have more of a competitive team this year. I think through this part of the season, it’s been mixed, quite honestly, that’s what I think. And that’s what the coach would say. Arthur is a very honest, very… he looks at himself very critically, so he comes from a beautiful family, that has great values and he reflects those values in his leadership the best he can. So, we’ll see how the season plays out and go from there.”
Smith has been undone by woefully inconsistent quarterback play, to be sure. Desmond Ridder began the year as the starting quarterback, was benched for Taylor Heinicke, got his job back, and has now been benched again. But for a team with a lot of talented weapons around the quarterback position — Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson for example — one would think that an offensive-minded head coach like Smith would find a way to elevate the QB play.
In recent weeks, the Falcons have gone from being in the driver’s seat in the division, to sitting outside the playoff with just three games to go. Was last week’s dismal loss to the Carolina Panthers rock bottom, or just a sign of even worse things to come?
Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images
Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears
The Eberflus story in 2023 for the Chicago Bears has endured more twists and turns than your favorite telenovela. From a disastrous start and a defensive coordinator leaving four games into the season, to flipping around this season by trading for Montez Sweat, Eberflus might’ve been able to save his job with some promising defensive performances. However, as the season has developed, it’s been clear Eberflus has made some poor in-game management decisions. With the Bears bringing in another top pick in April, GM Ryan Poles might want to make a change with the leadership.
Of course, the entire conversation will be around QB Justin Fields. With Fields once again making a late push and showing the requisite talent to be considered as a long-term option at QB, Poles will have to make a decision on if he wants this braintrust around the former first round pick. If he decides to move on from Fields, does he want Eberflus around another top QB pick? Odds are that might not happen.
Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders
It just feels like the Commanders need a new mind at the top of their situation. Rivera has been in Washington since 202, and all he has to show for it is a 26-37-1 record, zero playoff wins and an offense that has never been in the top half of the NFL. Rivera’s constant misses at quarterback have undermined an offense that has a talented group of receivers and wasted a defense that had four first round draft picks on their defensive line at one point (Washington traded Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the deadline this year).
The process has just not been good and hasn’t led to any good results. From flip flopping between QBs to the failed Carson Wentz reclamation project to benching Sam Howell to “protect him” while Howell needs reps to develop, Rivera can’t continue to swing and miss on the most important position in the sport. Add in a new ownership group that might want to make their own hire, and you get a scorching seat for Rivera.
Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images
Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints
Many believed the New Orleans Saints had the inside track to winning the NFC South when the season began. With the rest of the division facing questions at quarterback — the Panthers starting rookie Bryce Young, the Falcons starting second-year passer Ridder, and the Buccaneers turning to Baker Mayfield — the addition of Derek Carr gave the Saints the most stable QB situation in the division.
However, that has not translated to the wins that were expected, and now the Saints are fighting for their playoff lives. Worse yet, there have been moments of frustration on the sideline between Carr and his receivers, with some of that spilling over onto social media.
The Saints can still get into the playoffs, and even have a shot at the division over these final three weeks. But if they limp to another losing record, will Allen get a chance at year three?
NFL head coaches already fired in 2023
Two head coaches have been canned during the season, both from the AFC West:
Who is going to join them in the unemployment line? With the end of the season looming, more firings are going to take place soon.
